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Surveillance and Forecasting of Emerging Infectious Diseases (EPI 2408)Surveillance and Forecasting of Emerging Infectious Diseases (EPI 2408)

Stephen S. Morse, PhD, Columbia University Professor of Epidemiology and Director, USAID PREDICT, discusses global capacity to monitor diseases at the animal-human interface and develop a risk-based approach to concentrate these efforts in surveillance, prevention, and response at the most critical points for disease emergence from wildlife. He asserts that in order to predict, respond to, and prevent the emergence of novel infectious diseases in humans, pathogens must be identified at their source. His presentation addresses ways in which explosive human population growth and environmental changes have resulted in increased numbers of people living in close contact with animals. Unfortunately, according to Dr. Morse, the resulting increase in contact, together with changes in land use, has altered the inherent ecological balance between pathogens and their human and animal hosts.


Name View Schedule
Online Lesson1. Pre-Test -
Online Lesson2. Course Material - Surveillance and Forecasting of Emerging Infectious Diseases -
Online Lesson3. Post-Test -
Online Lesson4. Satisfaction Survey -


Course Objective:

The purpose of this course is to:

  • Provide an in depth understanding of how changes in the environment may increase contact between pathogens and their human and animal hosts, with greater chance or frequency of introduction of emerging or re-emerging diseases

Key Messages:

  • The “zoonotic pool” is a rich source of potential emerging pathogens
  • Changes in agriculture, food handling practices, water ecosystems, and climate all offer new opportunities for pathogens
  • The public health community needs to be part of early detection and control of emerging infectious diseases 
  • A primary challenge in public health is to develop a strategic framework for identifying pathogens of pandemic potential that have not yet emerged


Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities:

  • Medical Material Management and Distribution
  • Medical Surge
  • Emergency Operations Coordination
  • Responder Safety and Health
  • Mass Care
  • Public Health Surveillance and Epidemiologic Investigation
  • Public Health Laboratory Testing
  • Emergency Public Information and Warning
  • Information Sharing
  • Community Preparedness


Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center (CDC):

  • 1.1 Solve problems under emergency conditions
  • 1.3 Facilitate collaboration with internal and external emergency response partners
  • 1.4 Maintain situational awareness
  • 2.1 Manage information related to an emergency
  • 2.3 Report information potentially relevant to the identification and control of an emergency through the chain of command
  • 2.4 Collect data according to protocol
  • 2.5 Manage the recording and/or transcription of data according to protocol
  • 3.2 Contribute expertise to the development of emergency plans
  • 3.3 Participate in improving the organization’s capacities (including, but not limited to programs, plans, policies, laws, and workforce training)
  • 4.2 Employ protective behaviors according to changing conditions, personal limitations and threats

Learning Objectives:

At the end of this course, you will be able to:

  • Describe how environmental changes offer new opportunities for pathogens
  • Identify and explain the relevance of developing global capacity to anticipate and prevent emerging zoonotic diseases from wildlife pathogens
  • Define and summarize the similarities and differences between the spread of HIV and SARs
  • Summarize the issues surrounding the most severe influenza pandemic of the 20th century
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